A separate interest rate for Sydney’s heated property market? Why not?

March 5th, 2017

Instead of the many rushed regurgitations of the OECD’s influential Economic Survey of Australia 2017, this more considered piece by the AFR’s Jacob Greber is worth reading.

What’s lacking in all of it however is (a) an emphasis on the Sydney and Melbourne property markets being overheated in contrast to several other capital city markets and (b) the disconnect between the official cash rate and actual market interest rates.

If you removed Sydney and Melbourne from the equation, we think RBA’s Lowe can’t be criticised for maintaining a low (pun unintended) official cash rate to support what really is a fragile national economy run by politicians whose only defining characteristic is a tin ear.

Given that Sydney’s property market is the most highly leveraged and Sydney is Australia’s economic engine room, it beggars belief that in the interests of preventing a national recession, policymakers and APRA don’t fashion a Sydney specific official cash rate and raft of macro prudential measures to cool its property market.

Surely that couldn’t be more complicated than bulldozing a WestCONnex through densely populated suburbs, cutting down hundreds of ancient trees for a not so light rail line, shutting an entire city street indefinitely for the same project, killing a once vibrant nightlife, demolishing multiple high rise city buildings for another dubious rail project and forcibly amalgamating numerous local councils.

If it is, then we think all those tin ears should just give up and go work for NAB.

A one size interest rate doesn’t fit all property markets.

Now there’s a conversation worth having!

http://www.afr.com/…/oecd-rings-alarm-on-housing-rout-20170…