Sydney development sites. More history repeating?

May 31st, 2017

We first mentioned these pressures in this passage of our 2016 Q1 CurtiseCall:

“For the many developers who have paid premium prices for sites and need to sell at premium prices, there could be serious consequences of any reduction in demand which, for other developers next in line, could mean longer term buying opportunities.

As industry veteran Lyn Shaddock observes in his recent Property Secrets memoir:

“ …A lot of the investment is from outside Australia, by people who have not experienced the fall in values of previous cycles…In every down cycle people say “This one is different”. I disagree…Foreign capital will only stay while it can foresee profit. The moment that perception changes, panic sets in and the capital goes to where it believes profit can be made…in most cases the decision process is drive (sic) by the desire to protect capital. The rush for the exit usually means bargains” “.

The following insightful article discusses how regulators have since closed an exit strategy by which to “protect capital” – an initiative that can only exacerbate the pressures we highlighted last year.

We think Shaddock’s prediction will prove true sooner than later.

And if you think it’s not possible, hands up those who remember the black holes that were left around town during the late ’80’s to ’90’s such as the now World Square, 37 Bligh Street and behind the Old Sydney Eye Hospital at Wooloomooloo once the likes of Japan’s EIE and Kumagai Gumi had left town?

http://www.afr.com/…/storm-brewing-on-sydney-apartment-site…