Upside potential
- Possible uplift in prices for residential properties along eg: Eastern Valley Way and Strathallen Avenue if Beaches Link reduces traffic flows AND no “induced demand” from rat running ‘toll bludgers’ (Westconnex studies suggest that assumption is unrealistic)
- Nothing else evident given no Northbridge access to or from Beaches Link for better connectivity to city or airport
Downside risks
- Reduced property prices:
Residential properties:
Before tunnel construction:
– Fear of the Known Unknown can depress prices especially along proposed route and close to proposed stacks eg: anecdotal evidence suggests this is occurring in
Newtown/Camperdown where buyers are asking:
~ how close is too close?
~ how deep will it be?
~ where will the stacks be built?
During tunnel construction:
– Theoretically possible physical risks could depress prices eg:
~ structure collapses during tunnelling
~ groundwater alterations
~ noise
~ storage of materials
~ vibration
~ pollution (air and groundwater)
After tunnel construction:
– Downside risks tend to abate and prices rebound in transition to Known Known eg: thousands of properties trade along route of Eastern Distributor and close to actual stacks
with little buyer apprehension
– Subterranean resumptions typically have little impact on prices
Caveats:
– Before and during tunnel construction phases can span several years of the property cycle
– Inner city buyers may have greater tolerances than some (not all) outer ring buyers
Commercial properties:
– possible loss of passing custom to Northbridge Plaza
– may restrict deep foundation/carpark future higher density development (up side potential for opponents of such development)
Future trends
- Are towards abatement:
– Recent Urban Forestry studies offer some reassurance – more green/ less of some particulates
– Electric cars may mean no particulate pollution eg: all Volvo cars will have an electric motor by 2019
– Driverless cars – tunnels may help them communicate with the road and each other
– Other end of the spectrum:
~ 24 unit development literally incorporating the Eastern Distributor stack just Court approved: SOFS Pty Ltd v City of Sydney L&E Court 8 March 2017!
